It’s been another eventful 24 hours for XRP—and the market hasn’t blinked. What’s captured the attention of trading desks and Telegram groups alike isn’t just the breathless price swings, but the potent cocktail of founder activity, surging on-chain metrics, and front-page geopolitical catalysts vying for dominance. Zoom out and you can clearly spot the fingerprints of both liquidity-hungry whales and a rising tide of institutional participants, all against the soundtrack of regulatory question marks.
Founder Whales on the Move: Chris Larsen’s Major XRP Sales Trigger Volatility
Forget subtlety—Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen’s sell-off of 50 to 57 million XRP (between $175 million and $200 million) hit centralised exchanges with the subtlety of a thunderclap. The resulting wave of liquidity routed through major venues like Coinbase and Binance coincided almost perfectly with a 17% dip, as the price fell from mid-$3.60s to touch lows near $2.95 before rebounding to $3.13 [Source: Ainvest], [Source: The Crypto Basic], [Source: Binance Square].
What’s more telling is the timing: these transactions weren’t scattered randomly, but clustered during peak London and New York sessions when market depth appeared ready to absorb the flow—though “absorb” might be overstating it. Volumes shot up by roughly 150% on hourly intervals as market makers, algo desks, and retail “dip-buyers” collided. Order books thinned out beyond $3.10, with sell walls rising in response to the founder’s wallet movements—a clear illustration of how outsized founder activity can dominate microstructure in even the most liquid crypto pairs.
Larsen still sits on more than 2.8 billion XRP, so the chess match between founder supply and market demand is far from over. But the immediate effect? A liquidity event that tested support, rattled nerves, and—crucially—reset technicals right as the macro backdrop began to shift.
Network Health: Wallets Surge as the Market Finds its Feet
While headline-grabbing sales fuelled short-term uncertainty, XRP’s network tells a subtly different story. Fresh wallet creation ripped higher—over 11,000 new addresses in a single 24-hour stretch—blowing past June and early July baselines by a convincing margin. Blockchain analytics show a 47% bump in active accounts [Source: CoinCentral], suggesting a rotation in addresses that’s historically associated with broader “market enfranchisement” rather than just fast-money churn.
Here’s where the rebuilding of price momentum finds a plausible foundation. As XRP bounced from its $2.95 nadir back above $3.10, corresponding on-chain data revealed not only raw new wallet formation but also active tokens in motion—real engagement, not just bot noise. Traders watching the RSI and MACD noted bullish divergences forming precisely where wallet inflows were strongest, leading to a technical base that some seasoned chartists began calling a “textbook accumulation zone.”
Macroeconomic Winds: Trade Agreements Fuel Blockchain Optimism
Behind the surface-level volatility, global macro events are reconfiguring the landscape in XRP’s favour. Recent U.S.–Japan and U.S.–EU trade agreements—complete with tariff ceilings and explicit blockchain infrastructure incentives—are more than diplomatic theatre. These deals explicitly champion digital settlement corridors. ISO 20022 compliance came up repeatedly in official communiqués, effectively telegraphing a seat at the table for public-ledger systems like XRP [Source: AInvest].
Institutional flows have matched this shift in narrative. Major custodial wallets accumulated over 4.7 million XRP during London trading hours, and open interest in XRP-linked futures contracts jumped a whopping 143%. For those who’ve tracked these cycles before, open interest spikes like this often coincide with pre-positioning for longer-term regulatory or partnership news [Source: FingerLakes1].
The real story is that we’re now seeing global trade policy setting the conditions for cross-border blockchain adoption. The GENIUS Act in the U.S. and the EU’s MiCA regulations are forming a sort of regulatory corridor—giving institutions new confidence to entertain XRP as a compliant settlement rail. Suddenly, the “wait for regulatory clarity” mantra is less of a handbrake and more of a roadmap.
Technical Picture: Crunch Time for Accumulation and Breakouts
In technical terms, $3.40 remains the battle line. Across the latest session, XRP has consolidated between $3.40 and $3.65—a classic “decision zone.” Relative Strength Index sits at a comfortable 60, hinting at underlying bullishness without signaling exhaustion, while the MACD trigger quietly edged higher after the sell-off, fueling speculation of a golden cross on higher timeframes [Source: BTCC].
Bollinger Bands narrowing through this range sets the stage for a classic volatility squeeze, with a breakout above $3.65 as the catalyst technical traders are watching. Volume profile analysis reveals sticky pockets of accumulation just above $3.40, while thin resistance beyond $3.65 means if the bears blink, there’s potential room to run—targets clustering at $4.65 and $5.20 per Fibonacci extension analysis [Source: Ainvest].
That said, UK-based experts are urging caution: “Without decisive, volume-backed closes above $3.65, bulls risk short-term retracement as the market digests both technical setups and headline risks,” as noted in recent London market briefings [Source: Bitget].
Community Pulse: Sentiment Split but Tilting Bullish
Step onto Crypto Twitter or Reddit’s r/Ripple, and the temperature is unmistakably febrile—but with a telling shift from pure anxiety to cautious optimism. Yes, Larsen’s sales were decried (terms like “whale dumping” trended), but as the price rebounded and wallet numbers climbed, the dialogue morphed: influencers and retail traders alike began dissecting entry points in the $3.40–$3.50 band, and community-led “wallet watch” efforts tracked institutional inflows.
Not everyone’s convinced the worst is over—regulatory spectres remain, and sentiment can turn faster than a London rainstorm. Still, the prevailing trend in sentiment analysis algorithms is clear: negative chatter has been fading, replaced by recurring themes of “accumulation zone,” “breakout imminent,” and “cross-border integration.”
Regulatory Uncertainty: Still the Elephant in the Room
All this optimism is underwritten by a single, stubborn caveat: regulation. The market awaits the SEC’s verdict on the REX-Osprey Spot XRP ETF, a decision now overdue and the subject of feverish speculation [Source: Nasdaq]. Should the ETF get the nod, history suggests institutional flows could tighten supply and force price higher—but even a minor delay could dampen spirits and rapidly unwind gains as traders reassess exposure.
Meanwhile, with Ripple’s own leaders prioritising utility and compliance over price predictions, the market is left navigating a delicate balance: bet too heavily on regulatory green lights and risk rug-pull, but ignore the drumbeat of on-chain and macro trends and you risk missing the bigger wave altogether [Source: Ainvest].
Perspective Across the Street: Divergent Media Takes and What to Watch
Mainstream financial press, from Bloomberg to Financial Times, has started picking up on the role of macro deals as a driver for blockchain adoption—citing XRP as a possible winner, albeit with caveats on regulatory lag. Meanwhile, crypto-centric outlets like Bitget and FingerLakes1 have drilled into the short-term trading opportunity, spotlighting wallet inflows, futures positioning, and order book microstructure missed by broader outlets [Source: FingerLakes1].
The result? A spectrum of narratives—bullish fundamentals, real institutional adoption, but with a persistent undertow of regulatory unknowns.
XRP Outlook: Cautious Optimism Amid Breakout Potential and Macro Tailwinds
Here’s the lay of the land going into the next 24–48 hours:
- Support and Resistance: $3.40 remains fortress-level support; a clean break above $3.65, especially with confirming volume, puts $4.65 firmly in play for short-term traders. Above that, $5.20–$6.50 looms on the weekly horizon for the courageous.
- On-chain Health: Wallet creation and inflows are flagging sustained demand—historically a precursor to further price advances and deeper bullish positioning.
- Macro and Institutional Flows: Realigned trade deals and rising regulation compliance boost XRP’s narrative, with institutional wallets backing up the story through meaningful accumulation and surging open interest.
- Regulatory Watch: The SEC’s ETF decision is pivotal. A green light opens the door for significant upside. Continued delay suggests range-bound, headline-driven trading until clarity emerges.
None of this is to say risks have evaporated. Some seasoned market watchers remain wary—insider selling and high-level concentration continue to breed unease, and competitor ecosystems are circling. Still, the confluence of technical resilience, robust network metrics, and supportive macro catalysts make for a backdrop that, for now, tips the scales towards cautious bullishness.
For UK and global readers alike, the message is clear: eyes on volume, wallets, and regulatory headlines. When true institutional flows collide with macro tailwinds, even whale-driven volatility may be just a curtain-raiser for the main event.
Sources
- Ainvest – XRP News Today: Ripple Founder Sells 175M XRP Tokens, Price Dips 17%
- The Crypto Basic – Ripple Founder Continues to Dump XRP as Price Dips to $2.95
- Binance Square – Chris Larsen’s Recent XRP Transfers and Market Activity
- BTCC – XRP price news and technical analysis
- Ainvest – XRP Consolidation and Breakout Analysis 2025
- Bitget – XRP Latest Price Prediction and Analysis
- CoinCentral – XRP Network Activity and Accumulation
- FingerLakes1 – XRP Price Today, July 25, 2025: Technical and Market Analysis
- Nasdaq – Prediction: XRP Will Soar in the Second Half of 2025
- Ainvest – XRP News Today: Ripple Refuses to Endorse XRP Price Forecasts, Analysts Predict $5-20 (2025)
- AInvest – EU tariff truce and institutional crypto adoption